Decision-making under uncertainty: theory, experiments, and applications


Objectif

The aim of this course is to present an overview of the main developments in decision theory up to today’s research frontier. We start with classical theory and observed deviations from it. We will then discuss newer developments, which violate some of the classical assumptions. It will be argued that these deviations are not necessarily irrational. Thus, the course does not directly deal with psychological biases or “mistakes”. Applications to macroeconomics, financial markets, and marketing will be discussed. 

Plan

KEY TOPICS:  

  • Basic notions of order theory  
  • Preference relations 
  • Decision under certainty: utility maximization 
  • Choice Theory: Weak Axiom of Revealed Preferences and utility characterization 
  • Choice under risk: von Neumann and Morgenstern's Expected Utility 
  • Choice under uncertainty: Subjective Expected Utility (de Finetti, Savage, and Anscombe-Aumann models) 
  • Experimental violations of Subjective Expected Utility 
  • Generalizations: Ambiguity models (Choquet and Maxmin Expected Utility) 
  • Generalizations: Incomplete preferences under uncertainty (Bewley model) 

OPTIONAL TOPICS: 

  • Case-based decision theory 
  • Dynamic choices and updating/learning 
  • Models of unawareness 
  • Menu-choice models: demand for flexibility, role of temptation and desire for self-control 

Références